写真は一昨日の札幌円山公園の池の様子。札幌はここのところようやく積雪したかと思ったら、ふたたび暖気が来てというような揺り戻し。全体としては温暖化のなかでの初冬、という季節模様。
　ここのところの日本国内の「不安定感」は、こうした気候変動というようなことが民心に大きく影響し、反映しているかのようだと思っています。本日は「日本全体の政治を含む社会構造」問題。
　石破政権というのは、こういう日本の現状をまっすぐに映し出している政権。もうすぐ予算関係の待ったなしの政局が動き始めるとき、否応なく暴風の中に突入していくのでしょうか。昨日、国民民主党の政策を受け入れることを記者発表したことで、当面は自公国という枠組みでの政権運営がこころみられていくのでしょうが、予算委員会の差配を野党第１党に明け渡しているので、どういう予算審議になっていくのか、まったく不透明な政局に突入する。
　一方で外交面では、たぶん外務省が相当以前から働きかけてきたと言われる「トランプシフト」も虚しく石破NOというすげない返事が返ってきて、日本外交の基軸・日米同盟に不安定要素が増してきている。また、一国の総理、それも世界で３位の経済大国のトップとしてまことに無自覚もしくは、端的にそれ以前のマナーの問題での人間的欠陥が白日の下にさらけ出されている。
　こういった状況を見ていると、今後の世界の中で日本国民は、相対的に国家の信用が低下していくことを覚悟しなければならないかも知れない。ヨーロッパではドイツもその地位をぐらつかせてきているけれど、それとも同様以上の国益の毀損がもたらされる可能性が高まっている。戦後世界で驚異的な経済成長を遂げて、世界の中でのひとつの安定要素を太平洋地域で築いてきた日本の地位が危殆に瀕している未曾有の状況を、この政権は日々さらけ出してきている。
　一方で、兵庫県知事選を象徴的な舞台として、民意についてのこれまでの社会構造に大きな変化が現れ始めている。政治とマスメディアが結びついて支配してきた構造それ自体が、大きく揺さぶられつつある。いまのところ、マスメディアはこれまでの既得権益死守というような報道を繰り返しているように見られる。また、そういう「付け入るスキ」も出来したりの混迷状況。
　さてこうした状況が早急に大きく安定に向かうかどうか、予断を許さない。これから未来の状況に安定するという構図はまだ見えていない。年末から来年度予算編成に向かっての予算案審議の行方、そしてトランプ政権の発足で、日本社会はどう対応できていくのだろうか？

English version⬇

Japanese society is in the midst of an uncertain early winter.
The shameful behavior of the government officials has gradually damaged the nation’s credibility. The next legitimacy to reverse the situation is yet to be seen. Must the people be prepared? …

　The photo shows the pond in Maruyama Park, Sapporo, the day before yesterday. Sapporo has been experiencing a swing back from finally having snow recently to having warm air again. Overall, the seasonal pattern is that of early winter in the midst of global warming.
　The recent “sense of instability” in Japan seems to be a reflection of such climate change, which is having a great impact on the public sentiment. Today’s issue is “social structure including politics of Japan as a whole.
　The Ishiba administration is an administration that is a straight reflection of this kind of current situation in Japan. When the budget-related wait-and-see political situation will soon begin to move, will we be plunged into a storm without denial? Yesterday, the government announced to the press that it would accept the policies of the KDP, and for the time being, it will probably try to manage the government within the framework of the autocratic government, but since it has handed over control of the Budget Committee to the first opposition party, we are entering a political situation where it is completely unclear what the budget deliberations will look like.
　Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, the “Trump shift,” which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been pushing for quite some time, has been met with a curt “no” from Ishiba, and the Japan-U.S. alliance, the cornerstone of Japanese diplomacy, is becoming increasingly unstable. In addition, as the prime minister of a country, the leader of the world’s third largest economy, he is either unaware of the fact that he is the prime minister of a country, or his human defects are exposed in the light of his mannerisms.
　In view of this situation, the Japanese people may have to be prepared for a relative decline in national credibility in the world in the future. In Europe, Germany’s position is wobbling, and the possibility of similar or greater damage to the national interest is increasing. This administration is daily exposing the unprecedented situation in which Japan, which has achieved phenomenal economic growth in the postwar world and established a stable element in the Pacific region, is now on the verge of a crisis.
　At the same time, a major change has begun to emerge in the conventional social structure of public opinion, with the Hyogo gubernatorial election as a symbolic stage for this change. The structure itself, which has been dominated by the combination of politics and the mass media, is being shaken to its core. At the moment, the mass media seem to be repeatedly reporting news that is intended to defend the vested interests of the past. In addition, there is a chaotic situation in which such “opportunities to take advantage of” have been created.
　It remains to be seen whether the situation will stabilize quickly and significantly. It does not appear that the future situation will stabilize in the near future. How will Japanese society be able to cope with the budget deliberations from the end of the year to the compilation of the next fiscal year’s budget, and with the inauguration of the Trump administration?

Posted on 11月 27th, 2024 by 三木 奎吾
Filed under: 状況・政治への発言