ゼロコロナ政策から180度転換後、中国で深甚な感染爆発が起こっているようだ。
中国当局はまったく情報管理主体として機能していない状況で
およそ誰も信じていない死者数・感染者数を発表している。
いまはそれすら放棄して「下部組織」による「参考」情報発信という無責任さ。
一方でアメリカ政府は独自の情報把握の結果、深甚なパンデミック状況を認識し、
救いの手を差し出そうとしたが、他方入国管理について対中シャットアウトした。
公的情報開示がなされていない中で各種の未確認情報が雪崩を打っている。
20日間で2億4800万人が感染したという情報リーク。1日1,000万人超の感染。
裏付けるように「中国・浙江省「コロナ感染1日最大200万人に」
地方政府が相次ぎ独自推計　実態示さない中央政府と対照的」〜東京新聞12/25.
先日、習近平辞めろ・共産党下台という反政府運動が起きたことで
歴世の中国社会が経験してきた「天下大乱」状況に突入と直感したけれど
そのプロセスにどんどん現実性が高まっている。
共産党政権の統治の「正統性」が大きく瓦解している。
そもそも最高指導者たる習近平自身がこのパンデミックに対して
これまでひと言も発言してきていなかった。
民がこれほどの阿鼻叫喚状況に突き落とされているのに、
最高政治責任者がいっさい発言もせずに責任を取ろうともしていない。
ゼロコロナと声高に自分の功績のように自慢し続けて
都合が悪くなったらいっさい発言しない「皇帝権力者」の姿。

さすがにまずいと思ったのか、ようやく【AFP＝時事】12/26(月) 23:31配信で
「中国主席「人命守る」措置を指示 コロナ規制緩和に伴う感染急拡大で」
というアナウンスが発せられた。不鮮明な発言だけれど、以下。
「中国の習近平国家主席は26日大幅に規制緩和して以来初めて、
公の発言を行い、人命を守る措置を講じるよう当局に促した。」
「感染症の予防と制御は現在、新たな状況や課題に直面している」
「疫病の予防と制御に向けた地域社会の防衛線を強化し、人民の生命、
安全、健康を効果的に保護していく」と表明した。〜国営中国中央テレビ（CCTV）。
・・・語られている内容は、ほぼ無内容な官僚的作文文章。
最高政治指導者として血の通った決意というものがまったく感じられない。
逆に今この段階でこういう言い方で「お茶を濁す」のがかれの本性かと。
支配ゲームには一生懸命だけれど統治責任にはまったく無自覚。
考えられるのは、浙江省のような対応がされることで支配機構内部ですら
中央権力機構側での掌握ができなくなっているということ。

さてこれは他国のことなので、まずは日本として
こういう隣国の状況に対してどのように対処していくべきか、が大事。
いまや日本外務大臣の既定の訪中計画すら執行できない対手の混乱状況。
内政の失敗を軍事的緊張に転嫁する動きも尖閣・台湾で見えてきてもいる。
天下大乱から、日本社会を防衛するための用意が必要でしょう。

English version⬇

China’s Empty Speech after the Tianxia Rebellion
The supreme power whose true nature is seen through by the Chinese people. The history of the Yi Surname Revolution proves the power of the Chinese people. We need to prepare for the wave of turmoil. …

After a 180-degree turnaround from the zero-corona policy, there appears to be a profound infection explosion.
The Chinese authorities are not functioning as information management entities at all.
The Chinese authorities have been announcing a number of deaths and infections that almost no one believes.
Now, they have abandoned even that and are irresponsible enough to transmit “reference” information by their “subordinate organizations.
On the other hand, the U.S. government has been aware of the seriousness of the pandemic situation and has been trying to help.
On the other hand, the U.S. government, aware of the serious pandemic situation, tried to offer a helping hand, but on the other hand, it shut out immigration control to China.
In the absence of public disclosure, an avalanche of unconfirmed information has been released.
The leaked information that 248 million people were infected in 20 days, with more than 10 million infected per day.
As if to corroborate, “Zhejiang Province, China: ‘Up to 2 million people infected with corona a day'”.
In contrast to the central government, which has not shown the actual situation, local governments have been making their own estimates one after another.
The recent anti-government movement of “Xi Jinping, Quit, Communist Party, Downtown” is a clear example of the kind of anti-government movement that Chinese society has experienced in past generations.
I had a hunch that we were entering a situation of “upheaval under the rule of heaven,” which has been experienced by Chinese society for many generations.
But the process is becoming more and more realistic.
The “legitimacy” of the Communist regime’s governance is in a major state of collapse.
In the first place, Xi Jinping himself, the supreme leader, has not said a word about this pandemic.
Xi Jinping, the Communist Party’s supreme leader, has not said a single word about the pandemic.
The people are in such a desperate situation, and yet the supreme political leader has not said a word.
The people are being plunged into such a desperate situation, and yet the supreme political leader has not said a word and is not taking responsibility.
They keep boasting loudly about Zero Corona as if it were their own achievement.
The “emperor of power” who keeps boasting loudly about his achievements as if they were his own and never speaks up when things go bad.

Perhaps they thought it was a bad idea, but finally, at 23:31 on 12/26 (Mon.), AFP reported the following.
Chinese President Orders Measures to “Protect Human Life” in Response to Rapid Spread of Infection Following Easing of Corona Restrictions.
The announcement was issued. The statement is unclear, but here it is
“Chinese President Xi Jinping made public remarks for the first time since the country’s drastic easing of restrictions on coronas on April 26.
“In his public remarks, he urged authorities to take measures to save lives.”
“The prevention and control of infectious diseases now faces new circumstances and challenges.”
He urged the authorities to “strengthen community lines of defense to prevent and control epidemics and effectively protect the lives, safety, and health of the people.
We will strengthen the community’s line of defense for epidemic prevention and control, and effectively protect the lives, safety, and health of the people,” he stated. ~State-run China Central Television (CCTV).
…What is being said is a bureaucratic composition of almost no content.
The content of what was said was almost contentless, bureaucratic composition, and I felt absolutely no sense of bloody determination as the supreme political leader.
On the contrary, I think it is his true nature to “muddy the waters” in this way at this stage of the game.
He is trying his best to play the game of domination, but he is completely unaware of his responsibility in governing.
It is conceivable that the response like Zhejiang’s will be a sign that even within the ruling structure, the central power structure will not be able to control the situation.
The central power structure has lost its grip on the situation.

Now that this is another country’s problem, we must first ask what Japan can do to deal with this kind of situation in its neighbor.
How should Japan deal with such a situation in a neighboring country?
Now, Japan’s foreign minister is unable to execute even his predetermined plan for a visit to China.
There is also a movement to shift domestic political failures to military tensions in the Senkaku Islands and Taiwan.
We need to be prepared to defend Japanese society against a major upheaval in the world.

Posted on 12月 27th, 2022 by 三木 奎吾
Filed under: 状況・政治への発言 | No Comments »

奈良の知人から先日「今朝は庭の景色が一変して雪景色」という知らせ。
文面からは奈良（橿原市）でこれだから、さぞ北海道は・・・というニュアンス。
なんですが、わたしどもの北海道は広大で一部は湿り雪での停電がありますが、
わたしの住んでいる札幌市はむしろ平年よりも高温で少雪気味。
ここ１−２日でも雨交じりで道路や敷地がグチャグチャという状況。
重い湿った、まるで北陸・新潟のような雪の状況。
この「湿雪」一番の問題点は電気の配電ネットワークへの打撃。
北海道でも一例では鉄骨配電塔が倒れて数日間、地域停電が発生したことがある。
気候としての冬の湿り雪はたぶん地球全体で見ても日本列島の特徴かも。
日本海という温暖傾向の海から発生する多量の水蒸気が
偏西風の影響を受けて日本列島の海岸に沿って降雪させる。
その時の気温状況で雪質は軽かったり重かったりする。
軽い、気温の下がった状況での降雪は比較的対応はやさしい。
ただただ寒いだけなので、住宅で言えば高断熱高気密で防衛できる。
しかし重たく湿った雪は、電気のネットワークに深甚な被害を与える。
さきの新潟の停電はまだ完全に復旧できない状況でまた降雪がきている。

先日の新潟中心の降雪・停電被害ではクルマの大渋滞にスポットが当たった。
わたしも福島県で年末、降雪の余波でクルマ大渋滞に遭遇したけれど
「関東から来るクルマがノーマルタイヤで動かなくなって大渋滞」と
東北人のみなさんは一様に口にされる。
今回の件がどうであったのかは詳細を把握していませんが、
大きな話題になっていたのは「電気自動車（EV）大丈夫か？」の点。
ガス欠が起こってもガソリンを渋滞車両に配れるけれど、
電気欠のクルマにはどうするの？という命にも関わる疑問点。
とくにEVバッテリーが低温には弱いというのはほぼ常識。
また、太陽光発電（PV）は冬場の連続する大雪時期には発電しない。
札幌の気候条件下では冬場の２−３ヶ月は発電を予期していない。
しかし考えられているのはEVとPVのワンセットの生活エネルギー対応。
当然蓄電池がそこに介在するというカタチが想定されている。
一番必要な冬場の移動手段が場合によっては「電欠」で確保できない。
どうも、この刷り込まれたライフスタイルモデルは
ヨーロッパ的な、あるいは大陸的な標準気候モデルだと思える。
そのそも、そのイギリスでは洋上風力の一本足に賭けた結果、
「思ったほど風が吹かなかった」ことで根底的な戦略見直しに迫られたし、
原発停止以降のエネルギー戦略としてロシア天然ガス一本足を選んだドイツは
ロシアの無道なウクライナ侵略を招来させてしまった。
エネルギー戦略の破綻で電力の異常高騰にヨーロッパ全域は襲われている。

ほぼ毎年のように繰り返し襲ってくるこの「湿り雪」と停電サイクルのなかで
アジア極東の変動気候に見舞われ続ける国のエネルギー戦略は
混乱する世界の「主流」追随型でいいのか、大いに疑問だと思われる。

English version⬇

Wet Snow Power Outages, Changing Climate and Humanity’s Energy Response
Renewable single energy strategy failed in Europe. It caused Russia’s spineless war. What is Nippon’s strategy under Far East Asian climate conditions? …

A friend of mine in Nara informed me the other day that the scenery in his garden had changed to snow this morning.
The text implied that since this was the case in Nara (Kashihara City, Nara Prefecture), Hokkaido must be… well…
But Hokkaido, where I live, is a vast island with power outages due to wet snow in some parts, but not in others.
However, Sapporo, where I live, is rather hotter than normal and has less snow than usual.
Even in the past day or two, the roads and grounds have been a mess due to the rain.
The snow is heavy and wet, just like in Hokuriku and Niigata.
The biggest problem with this “wet snow” is the damage to the electric power distribution network.
In one case in Hokkaido, a steel distribution tower collapsed, causing local power outages for several days.
Wet snow in winter as a climate is probably a characteristic of the Japanese archipelago as a whole.
A large amount of water vapor generated from the warm-trending Sea of Japan
The westerly winds cause snow to fall along the coasts of the Japanese archipelago.
The quality of the snow can be light or heavy depending on the temperature conditions at the time.
Snowfall under light, cooler temperature conditions is relatively easy to deal with.
Since it is just cold, it can be defended with high insulation and airtightness in terms of housing.
Heavy, wet snow, however, can cause serious damage to electrical networks.
The recent power outage in Niigata has yet to be fully restored, and another snowfall is on its way.

The recent snowfall and power outage in the center of Niigata highlighted the heavy traffic congestion of cars.
I was also in Fukushima prefecture at the end of the year when I encountered heavy car traffic jams in the aftermath of the snowfall.
I was in Fukushima prefecture at the end of the year when I encountered heavy car traffic jams in the aftermath of the snowfall.
I have also encountered heavy traffic jams in Fukushima Prefecture at the end of the year in the aftermath of the snowfall.
I don’t know the details of what happened this time.
I don’t know the details of what happened this time, but the big topic of conversation was, “Are electric vehicles (EVs) OK? point.
If you run out of gas, you can distribute gasoline to the cars in traffic, but what do you do with the cars that run out of electricity?
But what about cars that run out of electricity? This is a life-threatening question.
It is common knowledge that EV batteries are vulnerable to low temperatures.
In addition, photovoltaic (PV) power generation does not work during the continuous heavy snowfall in winter.
Under Sapporo’s climatic conditions, power generation is not expected for 2-3 months in winter.
However, what is being considered is a single set of EV and PV for daily energy needs.
Naturally, a storage battery is expected to intervene.
In some cases, the most necessary means of transportation in winter cannot be secured due to a lack of electricity.
Apparently, this imprinted lifestyle model is not
This imprinted lifestyle model seems to be a European or continental standard climate model.
And yet, in the United Kingdom, the bet on a single leg of offshore wind power has resulted in a “wind not blowing as fast as expected.
The UK was forced to fundamentally rethink its strategy after betting on a single leg of offshore wind power, which “didn’t blow as much wind as expected,” and
Germany, which chose a single leg of Russian natural gas as its energy strategy after the cessation of nuclear power plants
This led to Russia’s outrageous invasion of Ukraine.
The collapse of the energy strategy has led to an abnormal rise in the price of electricity throughout Europe.

In this “wet snow” and power outage cycle that strikes repeatedly, almost every year.
The energy strategy of a country that continues to be hit by the variable climate of the Asian Far East is
It is highly doubtful that the energy strategy of a country that continues to be hit by the variable climate of the Asian Far East can follow the “mainstream” of a world in turmoil.

Posted on 12月 25th, 2022 by 三木 奎吾
Filed under: 住宅マーケティング | No Comments »

国立歴史民俗博物館の古代史展示の大革新に刺激されるブログシリーズですが、
やはり時系列でときどき触れられている北縁世界、北海道島と東北北部社会に
北海道人としては強く惹かれざるを得ない。
「古墳をつくらない境界世界」というように紹介パネル。
なんですが、わたしは札幌近郊の江別古墳群をよく見ている。
いまは高速ICの江別西を一般道に下りて北上していくと左手の丘陵地帯に
それはある。しかしたしかに始原期の古墳ではなく
やや時代が下った奈良・平安期に造営されたと言われている。
なので、正しくは「つくったけれどかなり遅れた」世界なのだと思う。
この国家始原期の古墳時代には北海道は参加していない。
積雪寒冷という条件から、ごく一部の津軽平野地域を除いて
その生活文化基盤である水田農耕は北海道・東北北部には波及しなかった。
ごく一部の津軽平野部も、その後の十和田の火山噴火被害で一時消滅した。

続縄文といわれるライフスタイルが北海道・北東北では継続した。
しかし一方で仙台平野地域までは古墳時代の痕跡が残る。
仙台市内にも「遠見塚古墳」があり、国道４号線に面している。
やはり水田農耕の北限地域というラインに沿って
境界が区画されて、列島社会は分断されていたということなのでしょう。

この続縄文期の北海道島の様子は地元のことなので
この千葉県の国立歴史民俗博物館展示で見るといかにも懐かしい（笑）。
そうなんですよ、こうやって暮らしていたんですよ、と声を上げたくなる。
縄文的ライフスタイルとしては適地でもあり、
季節毎にカムイの食の恩恵に従順に暮らしを営んでいたと思える。
余市のフゴッペ洞窟には日本海側での北方アジアとの交流痕跡もある。
しかしさらに北のサハリンには北からの中国権力の影響もあって
それと緊張関係も惹起する趨勢になっていくし、さらにオホーツク文化人という
アムール川河口地域から大型海生動物をハンティングしながら
オホーツク沿岸地域に南下定住しはじめた人びととの緊張関係も芽生えた。
時代をやや下ればそうした相克が阿倍比羅夫の武力を利用する事態も勃発する。
決して孤立的にあったのではなく、常に日本社会との連動が続いていた。

・・・って、日本社会から移住してきたわが家系のことも考える自分がある。
移住者の末裔としての自分自身としては強い「故郷」感がふたつある。
環瀬戸内海的な感覚と、北方日本海沿岸的感覚。
こういう独自なシンクロ感覚というのはわたしの世代としては自然。
考えようによってはそういう強い帰属意識をふたつながら持てることで
多様な日本社会という視点でも考えられるのではないかと
最近は「いい方向」で考えるようにしている。
どっちに対しても親近感と理性的判断力を持てるみたいな。妄想ですね（笑）。

English version⬇

Hokkaido Island in the Early Days of the Japanese Nation: The 37,000-Year History of the Japanese Archipelago – 50
The Japanese culture-centered viewpoint and the perspective as an emigrant to Ezo. As a resident of Hokkaido, I want to have an affinity and calm reason for both. …

This blog series is inspired by the great innovation of the National Museum of Japanese History’s ancient history exhibit.
I am still strongly attracted to the northern rim world, Hokkaido Island and northern Tohoku society, which are sometimes mentioned in chronological order.
As a Hokkaider, I cannot help but be strongly attracted to the northern border world, Hokkaido Island and northern Tohoku society, which are mentioned from time to time.
The panel introduces the northern border world as “the border world that does not create ancient tombs.
I have often seen the Ebetsu tumulus group in the suburbs of Sapporo.
Nowadays, when you exit the Ebetsu Nishi highway IC onto the public road and head north, you will find a hillside on your left.
It is located on the hillside to the left. However, it is not a burial mound of the primitive period, but rather a slightly later burial mound
It is said to have been built in the Nara and Heian periods, which is a little later than the original period.
Therefore, I think it is a world that was “created but quite late” to be correct.
Hokkaido did not participate in the Kofun period of the primordial period of the nation.
Except for a few areas in the Tsugaru Plain, Hokkaido did not participate in the Kofun period of the primordial period of the nation.
Paddy field agriculture, the basis of life and culture, did not spread to Hokkaido and the northern Tohoku region.
A small portion of the Tsugaru Plain area was temporarily destroyed by the subsequent volcanic eruption in Towada.

The “Continuation Jomon” lifestyle continued in Hokkaido and the northern Tohoku region.
On the other hand, traces of the Kofun period remain as far as the Sendai Plain area.
In Sendai City, there is the “Tomizuka Tumulus,” which faces National Route 4.
It is still along the line of the northern limit of rice paddy farming.
The boundaries were demarcated along the line of the northern limit of rice paddy farming, and the society of the archipelago was divided.

This Continued Jomon Period on Hokkaido Island is so local.
How nostalgic it is to see it in this National Museum of Japanese History exhibit in Chiba Prefecture (laughs).
It makes me want to shout out, “Yes, this is how we lived.
It’s also an apt place for a Jomon lifestyle.
It seems that they lived their lives obediently to the blessings of Kamui food in every season.
There are traces of interaction with northern Asia on the Sea of Japan side in the Fugoppe Cave in Yoichi.
But further north, in Sakhalin, there is also the influence of Chinese power from the north.
This would have caused tensions between the Chinese and the Okhotsk culture.
While hunting large marine animals from the Amur River estuary area
Tensions also developed with the Okhotsk cultural people, who began settling southward in the coastal areas of Okhotsk while hunting large marine animals from the Amur River estuary region.
Somewhat later in the period, such conflicts led to the use of military force by the Abenohiras.
The Abenohiras were never isolated from the rest of Japanese society, but were always linked to it.

I think of myself as a descendant of emigrants from the Japanese society.
As a descendant of immigrants, I have two strong senses of “home.
One is a sense of the Inland Sea Rim, and the other is a sense of the northern Sea of Japan coast.
This unique sense of synchronization is natural for my generation.
Depending on how you look at it, having two such strong senses of belonging
I think that by having these two strong senses of belonging, we can also think from the perspective of a diverse Japanese society.
I try to think in a “positive” direction these days.
I can have a sense of closeness and rational judgment toward both sides. It’s a delusion (laughs).

Posted on 12月 23rd, 2022 by 三木 奎吾
Filed under: 日本社会・文化研究, 歴史探訪 | No Comments »

わたしたち現代人も多くの天変地異によって社会変動を経験した。
阪神淡路大震災、東日本大震災などによって社会は深甚な打撃を受けた。
現実の被害を超えて人のこころ、社会そのものにも影響をもたらせた。
国立歴史民俗博物館展示パネルでも古代での災害記録が記されている。
〜古代の日本列島はあまり大きな気候変動はなかった。しかし火山列島である
日本はさまざまな自然災害に悩まされた。869年に陸奧国で起こった大地震は
大規模な津波を伴い国府多賀城や周辺を潰滅させた。
874年の薩摩開聞岳噴火では多くの畑や集落が噴出物で埋もれた。〜
以下にパネルに表記された主な古代の自然災害。
・553年　阿蘇山噴火（記録での最古の噴火）
・599年　推古地震（大和国被害〜最古の地震被害記録）
・684年　白鳳大地震（伊予南部・津波被害も）
・６世紀初頭　榛名山二ツ岳噴火（古代豪族・上毛野氏本拠を直撃）
・６世紀中頃　榛名山二ツ岳噴火
・734年　畿内七道地震
・745年　天平地震（美濃国で被害）
・800~802年　富士山延暦大噴火
・818年　弘仁地震（関東諸国で被害、洪水も）
・864〜66年　富士山貞観大噴火
・869年　陸奧三陸沖・貞観地震と大津波（多賀城津波被害）
・871年　鳥海山噴火
・878年　元慶地震（相模・武蔵国で被害）
・887年　仁和地震（京都で被害、摂津で津波被害）
・・・国家機構として整備がされて以降の歴史年代でこうした記録。
それ以前の段階でも天変地異はもちろん多数発生していたことだろう。
そうした地震などが、祭政を司るヤマト王権にとってどのように影響したか、
現実に残された歴史経緯から想像力を巡らせるべきなのかもしれない。

６世紀初頭と中頃と記された榛名山噴火ではそれまでの古代勢力、
上毛野氏の本拠地域が壊滅的な打撃を受けたという。
古代中央軍事勢力・ヤマトタケル説話で名の残る地名
吾妻（あずま）としてはこの有力地域が眺望されたはず。
そういう吾妻中心地が潰滅したことで関東の歴史が大きく変動したと思える。
上毛野氏は古代の対外戦争でも中心的な軍事勢力として名が残るが
その後、政戦の記録からその名前が消滅し上野・下野の地名に
名前を留めるに過ぎなくなる。この榛名山二ツ岳噴火との強い関連が想像できる。
また古代の東日本大震災・貞観地震では王権の地方統治機構・多賀城が潰滅。
多賀城には関東を中心にした暴力装置・武装勢力が常駐しただろう。
その勢力の人命の多くが失われた可能性は高いと思われる。
中央政権のパワーが大きく削がれたことは疑いがない。
政治変動の基底要因としてもこうした天変地異が影響したと考えられる。
歴史年代として記録の残る時代でもこうした想像が可能だが
それ以前の社会でも自然災害はさらに大きな要因として働いたに違いない。

English version⬇

Ancient History and Earthquakes, Eruptions, and Natural Disasters: The 37,000-Year History of the Japanese Islands – 48
Numerous disasters have been recorded even after the age of historical records. Even before that, they occurred constantly and frequently. They must have had a strong influence on the mind and history. ・・・・.

We modern people have also experienced social changes due to many natural catastrophes.
The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, the Great East Japan Earthquake, and other disasters dealt a profound blow to society.
Beyond the actual damage, these disasters also had an impact on the human mind and society itself.
The National Museum of Japanese History exhibition panel also records disasters in ancient times.
〜The Japanese archipelago in ancient times did not experience major climatic changes. However, as a volcanic archipelago
In 869, a major earthquake occurred in Rikugunkoku, which was accompanied by a massive tsunami.
In 869, a major earthquake in Riku-Onkoku was accompanied by a massive tsunami that destroyed Tagajo, the national capital, and the surrounding area.
The eruption of Mt. Kaimondake in Satsuma in 874 buried many fields and villages in the eruption. ~.
The following are the major ancient natural disasters described in the panel.
Eruption of Mt. Aso in 553 (the earliest recorded eruption)
599 Suiko Earthquake (damage in Yamato Province – oldest record of earthquake damage)
684: Great Hakuho Earthquake (also caused tsunami damage in southern Iyo)
Early 6th century: Mt. Haruna Futatsudake eruption (hit the home of the ancient Kamimono clan)
Eruption of Mt. Haruna Futatsudake in the mid-6th century.
734 Kinai-Shichido Earthquake
745 Tenpyo Earthquake (damage in Mino Province)
800~802: Enryaku volcanic eruption of Mt.
818 Konin Earthquake (damage and flooding in Kanto region)
864-66: Great eruption of Mt.
869: Jogan earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Riku-On-Sanriku (damage from Tagajo tsunami)
871: Eruption of Mt.
878: Genkei Earthquake (damage in Sagami and Musashi Provinces)
887 Niwa Earthquake (Damage in Kyoto, Tsunami damage in Settsu)
These records are from the period after the establishment of the national organization.
Of course, there must have been many natural disasters even before that.
How such earthquakes affected the Yamato kingdom, which was in charge of ritual administration, is not clear.
Perhaps we should use our imagination to determine how such earthquakes and other events would have affected the Yamato royal government, which controlled the rituals.

The eruption of Mt. Haruna in the early and middle of the 6th century destroyed the ancient power that had been in power until then, the Kamimono clan.
The eruption of Mt. Haruna in the early to mid-6th century is said to have devastated the home region of the Kamomono clan, the ancient power that had been in power until that time.
Place names that remain in the legend of Yamatotakeru, the ancient central military force
This area must have been viewed as Azuma.
The destruction of the Azuma center is thought to have caused major changes in the history of the Kanto region.
The Kamimono clan’s name remained as a major military force in the ancient wars against Japan, but the records of political battles show that the Kamimono clan’s name did not change.
Later, their name disappeared from the records of political wars, and they were only mentioned in the names of places in Ueno and Shimono.
The name of the Jomono clan has remained only in the names of places in the Ueno and Shimono regions. It can be imagined that there is a strong connection with the eruption of Futatsudake on Mt.
In addition, the ancient Great East Japan Earthquake of Jogan destroyed Tagajo, the local seat of royal rule.
The Taga Castle would have been the permanent seat of a violent apparatus and armed forces centered in the Kanto region.
It is highly likely that many of the lives of those forces were lost.
There is no doubt that the power of the central regime was greatly reduced.
Such natural cataclysms are also thought to have been a fundamental factor in political change.
It is possible to imagine such an event even in the recorded historical period, but even in earlier societies
Natural disasters must have been an even more significant factor in earlier societies.

Posted on 12月 21st, 2022 by 三木 奎吾
Filed under: 日本社会・文化研究, 歴史探訪 | No Comments »

わたしたち現代人はいま見えている地形環境で歴史も想像する。
しかし、東京の地は家康の入部以来、旺盛な土木改編が加えられてきている。
水田農耕とは土地を人為的に改造することが基礎技術。
そしてその技術発展は人類史の中でも日本列島で巨大な成功を収めた。
四季変化が明瞭でとくに梅雨などの長雨が恒常化している国土では
こうした河川管理技術というのは権力の最高レベルの権威基盤。
卑弥呼のように呪術で天候を予見し、適切な農業管理を行い、
同時に人びとを動員して土木改編を加えるのは「まつりごと」の基本だった。
その上でさらに国土の自然変化というものも、
とくに大阪平野部では顕著だったといわれる。
上の図は国立歴史民俗博物館展示で示された「古代の難波」地域図。
日下雅義氏の1991年中央公論社刊「古代景観の復元」からの図。
〜上町台地の北に（いまの大阪城の位置に比定）堀江が開かれ「難波津」が
できるとこの地はきわめて重要な港湾となり、台地上には難波宮も造営された。
しかし、上流に位置する奈良平野、大和・山城での相次ぐ都城建設や
大寺院建設は山林を伐採し（土木工事で）土砂も流出させた。
その結果、港湾機能に支障をきたし衰え、難波の重要性も低下した。〜
１世紀中葉と言われる「神武東征」でも図上の生駒山地の西側麓の港に
東征軍は着岸したが、迎え撃つ地元勢力・長髄彦軍は生駒山を背にした高台から
太陽を背にして散々に東征軍を撃破したとされる。東征軍側は
「われらは太陽を奉る軍なのに、太陽に向かって攻めたことが敗戦原因」として
長躯迂回作戦に転じたとされている。
いずれにせよ、現在地形とはまったく違った与条件だったことがわかる。

ほんの2000年前後ほどの過去のことだけれど、
こういった地形変化はさまざまに歴史の事情に影響したに違いない。
なんといっても歴史は極限点では軍事によって決定されるので、
その時点での地形条件に即して戦争の勝敗は決定づけられたことだろう。
その後の時代の古墳造営の地理的な移動でもこうした条件が
大いに決定要因としてあったに違いない。
いやそもそも難波宮の造営自体にこのことは明瞭に示されるし、
はるかな後代での秀吉の大阪築城の動機としてもあっただろう。
また、纏向・飛鳥・藤原京・平城京という都城建設それ自体も
下流域・大阪平野にこのような地形変動をもたらしたという事実は
古代史段階全体でも大いに影響を与えていた、ということを示している。
そうすると、仁徳天皇陵などの巨大土木による地形改造というものも
政治経済に影響をもたらせた、あるいは意図的に仕組んだとも考えられる。
水田農耕というものはこのような苛烈な本質を持っているかも知れない。

English version⬇

The 37,000-Year History of the Japanese Archipelago – 47
Seasonal changes and the transformation of rivers and plains. The civil engineering and natural modification of rice paddies and agriculture also derived topographical changes and provided the historical stage.

We modern people imagine history based on the topographical environment we can see today.
However, since the arrival of Ieyasu, the land of Tokyo has undergone vigorous civil engineering reforms.
Paddy field agriculture is a basic technology that artificially modifies the land.
The development of this technology has been enormously successful in the Japanese archipelago, even in the history of mankind.
In a country with four distinct seasons, and especially in a land where long rains such as the rainy season are a regular occurrence, it is important to manage rivers in such a way that they do not become a source of pollution.
This river management technology is the foundation of authority at the highest level.
Like Himiko, the Japanese people used magic to foresee the weather, manage agriculture appropriately, and mobilize people for civil engineering reform.
At the same time, it would have been the basis of “festival work” to mobilize the people and reorganize civil engineering.
In addition, natural changes in the land, especially in the Osaka Plain, were also a significant factor.
The above figure is from the National Museum of Japanese History and Folklore exhibition.
The figure above is a map of the “Ancient Namba” area shown at the National Museum of Japanese History.
The figure above is from “Restoration of Ancient Landscape” by Masayoshi Kusaka, published by Chuokoron-sha in 1991.
〜The area was an extremely important port and a port town, and the “Naniwazu” was built on the north side of the Uemachi Plateau (the current location of Osaka Castle).
This area became an extremely important port, and the Naniwanomiya Palace was built on the plateau.
However, the construction of a succession of capital cities and large temples in the Nara Plain, Yamato and Yamashiro, located upstream of the Naniwanomiya Palace, caused the construction of forests in the mountains and forested areas.
The construction of large temples in the Nara Plain, Yamato, and Yamashiro, located upstream, caused the cutting down of forests and the discharge of earth and sand (due to civil engineering work).
As a result, port functions were hindered and declined, and the importance of Namba also declined. ~.
In the “Jinmu expedition” said to have taken place in the middle of the 1st century, the expeditionary force landed at the port at the western foot of the Ikoma Mountains shown in the figure.
However, the local forces that intercepted the army, the Nagamayuhiko forces, were able to intercept it from the high ground with their backs against Mt.
Ikoma, from the high ground with the sun at their backs.
The eastern expeditionary force claimed that the reason for their defeat was that they attacked toward the sun, even though they were an army dedicated to the sun.
The eastern expeditionary force is said to have turned to a detour around Chosan, saying, “We are an army dedicated to the sun, but we attacked toward the sun.
In any case, it is clear that the conditions were completely different from the current situation.

Although it was only around 2,000 years ago
These geomorphological changes must have affected the historical situation in various ways.
After all, history is determined by the military at the extreme point.
The victory or defeat in a war would have been decided according to the topographical conditions at that time.
Such conditions must have been a major determining factor in the geographical movement of tomb construction in later periods.
The geographical movement of the construction of the tombs in the following period must have been a major determinant of the outcome of the war.
This is clearly shown in the construction of the Naniwanomiya Palace itself.
This is clearly shown in the construction of the Naniwanomiya Palace itself, and may have been the motivation for Hideyoshi’s construction of Osaka in a much later period.
The construction of the capital cities of Mimamukai, Asuka, Fujiwara-kyo, and Heijo-kyo itself was also motivated by the construction of Osaka Castle by Hideyoshi in a much later period.
The fact that the construction of the capital cities of Mimamukai, Asuka, Fujiwara-kyo, and Heijo-kyo itself caused such topographical changes in the lower reaches of the Osaka Plain
The fact that the construction of the capital cities of Mimamukai, Asuka, Fujiwara-kyo, and Heijo-kyo itself caused such topographical changes in the downstream area of the Osaka Plain would indicate that the entire ancient history stage was also greatly affected.
This suggests that the topographical changes caused by the huge civil engineering projects such as the Nintoku Imperial Mausoleum also had a great impact on the political economy.
This suggests that the topographical changes caused by the huge civil engineering projects such as the Nintoku Imperial Mausoleum had a great impact on the political economy, or were intentionally planned and arranged.
Paddy field agriculture may have such an intense nature.

Posted on 12月 19th, 2022 by 三木 奎吾
Filed under: 日本社会・文化研究, 歴史探訪 | No Comments »