さて今週は当面する世界の最大の構成要因であるアメリカ大統領選挙が終わって、方向軸が固まった。この大枠のなかでどのように政治経済が動いていくか、どう対処して行くべきか、が問われていくことになる。
　しかし1942年11月20日生まれで現在81歳のバイデンさんもそうだけれど、次期大統領トランプも現在78歳と、日本的な言い方では「後期高齢者」ということになる。いまのところ、トランプさんはバイデンのように「老化」を感じさせることはなく、元気にゴルフをして健康そうな様子。体を動かして適度な運動をすることが脳の老化を抑えるという説が強いけれど、高齢化社会での社会システム維持という側面からも、一律の年齢による定年制とかは制度疲労を起こしてきているかも知れない。
　いつのころからこのように政治家の高齢化が進展してきたのか？どうもアメリカのような先進国でも政治には有為な人材が枯渇してきたということなのだろうか。社会が複雑化してあまりにも既成の枠組みが強固に固まりすぎて、若いチャレンジャーが頭角を表すのには、非常な困難を伴っているのかも知れない。日本の政界でもいかにも革新的と思える人材がなかなか現れてこない。そういうことから「世襲」での権力移譲のようなことがふつうに目に付くようになってきている。競争条件がこういった社会システムでは薄らいで来ているのかも知れない。左右を問わずこれこそが日本の保守化なのかも。
　先般の自民党総裁選挙は大々的に行われたけれど、結局そこで選ばれた人物は、有権者に対して明確な「選択軸」をも示すことなく弛緩した判断から衆議院解散を行って大敗し、自分で「勝敗分岐点」とした数をも下回った民意を示されたのに、それでも首相の座にしがみついている。
　こういう状況でトランプのような「激しい戦いを勝ち抜いてきた」指導者と、どういう理念を持って対話できるのだろうか、ヘタをすれば日本にとって重大な国益の毀損をもたらしかねない。
　精力的な後期高齢者トランプ78歳に対して、石破さんは1957年2月4日生まれの67歳・前期高齢者ということだけれど、はるかにトランプが輝かしいのに対して、眼にも精彩が感じられない。選挙ポスターでは眼の周辺をPhotoshopで修正したともウワサされている。
　民主主義国家の政治の正統性とは選挙における民意こそがそれであって、それに対してのまったくの「敗者」が果たして正面から対せるのかという思いはつきまとう。モラルハザード。
　選択した写真ではないけれど、羊がトランプという猛獣に狙われると思えてしまう。悲しい。

English version⬇

[Uniformly Unspeakable “Aging” Trump 2.0 Administration
LDP presidential and lower house elections. It is very sad to see the Japanese leader who is trying to stay in office after being rejected by the people and Trump 2.0 who has been fighting with impunity. …

　This week, the U.S. presidential election, the biggest factor in the world for the time being, is over and the direction of the world has been set. The question is how the political economy will move within this general framework and how we should deal with it.
　However, as is the case with Biden, who was born on November 20, 1942 and is now 81 years old, President-elect Trump is also 78 years old, which, in Japanese parlance, means that he is a “late senior citizen. So far, Trump, like Biden, does not seem to be “aging” and seems to be in good health, playing golf and looking healthy. There is a strong theory that physical activity and moderate exercise can suppress brain aging, but from the aspect of maintaining social systems in an aging society, a uniform age-based retirement system or the like may be causing institutional fatigue.
　When did the aging of politicians begin? Is it possible that even in advanced countries like the U.S., there is a depletion of talented people in politics? Society has become so complicated and the established frameworks so firmly entrenched that it may be extremely difficult for young challengers to emerge. Even in the Japanese political world, it is difficult to find innovative people. As a result, we are seeing more and more power transfers through “hereditary succession. The conditions for competition may be diminishing in such a social system. This may be the conservative trend in Japan, regardless of whether it is on the left or right.
　The recent LDP presidential election was widely publicized, but the person who was elected lost the election by dissolving the House of Representatives based on a slack decision without presenting a clear “axis of choice” to the voters, and he is still clinging to his position as prime minister even though the public opinion was lower than the number he had set as the “breaking point” between victory and defeat.
　Under such circumstances, what kind of philosophy would allow him to engage in dialogue with a leader like Trump, who has “won a fierce battle,” and if he makes a mistake, it could cause serious damage to Japan’s national interests.
　While Trump is an energetic late-elderly 78-year-old, Ishiba, who was born on February 4, 1957, is a 67-year-old early-elderly, and while Trump is far more brilliant, his eyes are also lackluster. It is also rumored that the area around his eyes on his campaign posters was corrected with Photoshop.
　The legitimacy of politics in a democracy lies in the will of the people in an election, and one wonders whether a total “loser” can really face that will head-on. Moral hazard.
　It’s not a choice picture, but it makes me think of a sheep being targeted by the beast of prey that is Trump. Sad.

Posted on 11月 9th, 2024 by 三木 奎吾
Filed under: 状況・政治への発言