歴史的な大敗でしたね。
　世界を襲った物価高騰を呼んだトランプ政権の数々の打ち手が、アメリカ国内でも未曾有の物価高騰を招き、とくにガソリン価格の上昇からアメリカ国民の反感、政権への憎悪を掻き立てた。民主党が勝ったというよりもトランプ政権がまったく正統性を失ってしまった、というのが事実に近いのでしょう。
　そういう明確な民意が示された。さて、この後世界はどう展開していくのか。
　世界最強の軍事国家であり経済活動の最活性地域であるアメリカの今後の２年間は、民意を完全に失ったトランプの動向と議会勢力のバランスを注視しながら、日本など諸国は付き合って行かざるを得ない。直近では、トランプが議会とどのように付き合うのか最悪の想定もあったなかで「民主党と協力する」という発言・発信があって、当面市場も好感して株式上昇しているという。
　中間選挙でアメリカ国民の意思がここまでハッキリ示されたことで、これまでの流れにひとつの明確な「指針」が見えてきたと思う。それはこれまでトランプ政権・その理不尽と正面から向き合うしかなかったのに対して、議会の多数派・民主党の動向との「複式方程式」で今後は考えるということ。そして民主党の党内情勢も冷静に把握していく必要性があるだろう。とくに共和党は次期大統領選では、トランプへの嫌悪感の充満ぶりから考えてほぼ勝ち目がないなかで、民主党内の動向をしっかりウォッチしていくことが肝要だろう。在アメリカ大使館・外務省や既成メディアのアメリカ特派員などの取材での活躍を期待したい。
　また、従来国連という存在に対しての日本社会の過大評価観も、見直していく必要がある。トランプ政権のひとつの「可視化」実績として、こうした国際機関というものの無力ぶりとひとつ覚え的で慢性的病理としか思われない「旧敵国」への対応ぶりが誰の目にも明らかになったことが挙げられる。
　総じてこういう「臨機応変」な対応力が今後の日本に求められていくのだろう。
　世界が注視していた大きな結節点であった米中間選挙。その結果からの情勢を見つめ続けたい。

　＜写真は活火山の「恵山」山頂部分＞

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English version⬇

[How Will the World Deal with Trump Over the Next Two Years?]
A clear “NO” has been delivered to the world’s most powerful leader, who had been a big question mark. We’ll continue to keep an eye on trends in the “will of the American people.” …

　It was a historic defeat.
　The Trump administration’s numerous policies—which triggered the global surge in prices—led to an unprecedented spike in prices within the United States as well, and the rise in gasoline prices, in particular, fueled public resentment and hatred toward the administration. It would be closer to the truth to say that the Trump administration has completely lost its legitimacy rather than simply that the Democrats won.
　That clear expression of public will has been demonstrated. So, how will the world unfold from here?
　For the next two years, the United States—the world’s most powerful military nation and the region with the most dynamic economic activity—will require other countries, such as Japan, to navigate their relationship with it while closely monitoring the actions of Trump, who has completely lost the public’s trust, and the balance of power in Congress. Most recently, amid worst-case scenarios regarding how Trump would deal with Congress, he has made statements indicating he would “cooperate with the Democrats,” and for the time being, the markets have reacted positively, driving stock prices higher.
　Now that the will of the American people has been so clearly demonstrated in the midterm elections, I believe a clear “guideline” has emerged regarding the path forward. Whereas until now we had no choice but to confront the Trump administration and its unreasonable behavior head-on, we must now approach matters through a “system of equations” that takes into account the actions of the Democratic majority in Congress. Furthermore, it will be necessary to calmly assess the internal dynamics within the Democratic Party. In particular, given that the Republican Party has virtually no chance of winning the next presidential election—considering the pervasive aversion to Trump—it will be crucial for them to closely monitor developments within the Democratic Party. I look forward to seeing active reporting from the Japanese Embassy in the U.S., the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and U.S. correspondents for mainstream media outlets.
　Furthermore, Japanese society’s tendency to overestimate the significance of the United Nations must also be reevaluated. One of the Trump administration’s “tangible” achievements has been to make it clear to everyone just how powerless such international organizations are, and how their approach to “former enemy nations”—which appears to be nothing more than a one-trick, chronic pathology—truly is.
　Overall, this kind of “flexible” responsiveness will likely be required of Japan going forward.
　The U.S. midterm elections were a major turning point that the world watched closely. I intend to continue monitoring the situation as it unfolds in light of those results.
　

● Announcement
My book, *Writers and Living Spaces*, has been published as an e-book by Gentosha.
Available on Amazon.

Posted on 11月 5th, 2026 by 三木 奎吾
Filed under: 未分類