{"id":41028,"date":"2023-06-23T05:57:24","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T20:57:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kochihen.replan.ne.jp\/?p=41028"},"modified":"2023-06-26T19:13:33","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T10:13:33","slug":"%e3%80%90%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e4%b8%8d%e5%8b%95%e7%94%a3%e3%83%90%e3%83%96%e3%83%ab%e5%b4%a9%e5%a3%8a%e3%81%ae%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf%e3%81%af%ef%bc%9f%e3%80%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kochihen.replan.ne.jp\/?p=41028","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u5d29\u58ca\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u306f\uff1f\u3011"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>
\n\"\"<\/a>
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\n\"\"<\/a>
\n\"\"<\/a>
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\n\u65e5\u672c\u306f\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u5f8c\u3001\u9577\u3044\u4f4e\u8ff7\u671f\u3092\u7d4c\u9a13\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3051\u308c\u3069\u3057\u304b\u3057\u4f53\u5236\u306e\u5d29\u58ca\u306a\u3069\u306f\u8d77\u3053\u3089\u305a\u3001\u5e73\u548c\u7684\u306a\u74b0\u5883\u306f\u7dad\u6301\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3002\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6210\u9577\u304b\u3089\u306e\u8edf\u7740\u9678\u3001\u306f\u305f\u3057\u3066\u4e2d\u56fd\u306f\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n

English version\u2b07<\/p>\n

How did China’s real estate bubble burst?
\nChina’s economic development was effective in rebuilding the world economy after the Lehman Shock. However, a complete red light has been turned on for the abnormal real estate one-legged economy. What will be the impact? …<\/p>\n

Okasan Securities offers a video program called “Compound Eye Economics School,” which I check out from time to time. The latest program is titled “Interest Rate Cut for the First Time in 10 Months! Is the Chinese Economy in Trouble? ” was published. It was viewed 24,000 times after 10 hours of publication. The screen shot image is from there.
\nThere is growing concern about the bursting of China’s real estate bubble and its global impact, but because of the country’s dictatorship, the Japanese mass media in particular tends to be very compliant in its coverage, making it difficult to convey a sense of crisis. In such a situation, it is easier to understand the situation through specialized economic channels.
\nDuring the Hu Jintao administration, China’s real estate investment-led economic policies were successful in helping the world economy recover from the Lehman Shock that originated in the United States, and they became the driving force behind the global economic recovery. Since then, the economy has been developing under the reform and open-door policy, but at present, the number of condominium units in China is already at a level three times that of the total population, and there is a complete oversupply. The figure above shows the semi-annual housing price index in China for 2028-2022, with 2010 as 100. Although the index for FY23 was predicted in the chart, there is no doubt about the sharp downward trend. The data is from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, so it was repeatedly mentioned in the program that it should not be relied upon. However, even with this bias, the stalling trend of the Chinese economy comes into sharp relief.
\nAlthough housing trends are a domestic economic factor, we cannot ignore the impact of this trend in terms of global housing-related marketing. It has long been said that if the U.S. sneezes, Japan will catch pneumonia. As the world’s economic structure is becoming more interdependent, it will be necessary to assess how the economic situation in China will affect the Japanese economy in particular. There are probably very few large Japanese companies that will not be affected.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, this is the OECD Business Confidence Index, which was shown in the same video, and since the OECD is generally considered to be an average of developed countries, only Japan has remained at a high level in the world economy. This is probably a background factor for the rising stock prices in Japan. The U.S. move to “derisk” and exclude China from the market in terms of economic security policy choices is probably an indication of the trend of increasing relative confidence in the Japanese economy amid the accelerating trend.
\nJapan experienced a long period of stagnation after the bubble economy, but the system did not collapse and a peaceful environment was maintained. Is a soft landing from high growth in China really possible?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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